Welcome

Opinion polls are useful, but the betting markets know best. This site analyses the entire betting market daily (by noon) to project the course of the election and find trends and seats of interest.

Using the best odds from across the market and reducing favourite longshot-bias (FLB) by eliminating odds below (33/1), we have converted all odds into implied probability (percentages) and re-weighted each seat to 100%. For cumulative seat projections (1 seat per 100%), a recalculation excluding probabilities <20% exists to further reduce FLB.

Click any seat or party for more detail, or use any of the buttons at the top of the page for other areas of analysis. For feedback or questions, please contact hello@bookelections.com or visit twitter.com/bookelections.

Top 10

Closest seats

Diff%: SeatLastFav
2%: East RenfrewshireLABSNP
2%: St IvesLIBLIB
2%: Northampton NorthCONCON
2%: TorbayLIBCON
2%: Birmingham, YardleyLIBLAB
4%: Dunfermline and West FifeLABSNP
5%: Halesowen and Rowley RegisCONCON
5%: Edinburgh SouthLABLAB
5%: North CornwallLIBLIB
7%: Norwich NorthCONCON

Likely swings

Loss%: SeatLastFav
95%: Norwich SouthLIBLAB
94%: Argyll and ButeLIBSNP
93%: Dundee WestLABSNP
92%: Brent CentralLIBLAB
92%: West Aberdeenshire and KincardineLIBSNP
92%: RedcarLIBLAB
91%: Ochil and South PerthshireLABSNP
91%: Manchester WithingtonLIBLAB
89%: FalkirkLABSNP
88%: North Ayrshire and ArranLABSNP

Changing odds (last 3 days)

Change%: SeatLastFav
28%: Sheffield, HallamLIBLIB
25%: WatfordCONCON
12%: Berwick-upon-TweedLIBCON
12%: Glasgow CentralLABSNP
10%: Rochester and StroodUKPCON
10%: Boston and SkegnessCONCON
9%: BathLIBLIB
9%: South ThanetCONUKP
9%: Sittingbourne and SheppeyCONCON
8%: GraveshamCONCON

2015 Projections

Favourites

Cumulative (exc. FLB)

2015 Projections history

Favourites

Cumulative (exc. FLB)

2015 Projections detail

Favourites

PartySeatsSwing
Conservatives279-24
Labour264+6
SNP54+48
Liberal Democrats26-31
DUP9+1
Sinn Fein50
PC30
UKIP3+1
SDLP30
Other10
Respect10
Green10
Speaker10

Cumulative (exc. FLB)

PartySeatsSwing
Conservatives279-24
Labour270+12
SNP49+43
Liberal Democrats25-32
DUP9+1
Sinn Fein50
UKIP4+2
SDLP30
PC30
Other10
UUP1+1
Green10
Respect10
Speaker10

Cumulative (inc. FLB)

PartySeatsSwing
Conservatives270-33
Labour265+7
SNP45+39
Liberal Democrats29-28
UKIP16+14
DUP80
Sinn Fein50
PC30
SDLP30
Other2+1
Green10
UUP1+1
Respect10
Speaker10
*Seats may not total 650 due to rounding.

Last win and swings are measured by winning party at time of last election or by-election, regardless of MP status at end of parliament.