Last updated: 07 May 2015
Last updated: 07 May 2015
Opinion polls are useful, but the betting markets know best. This site analyses the entire betting market daily (by noon) to project the course of the election and find trends and seats of interest.
Using the best odds from across the market and reducing favourite longshot-bias (FLB) by eliminating odds below (33/1), we have converted all odds into implied probability (percentages) and re-weighted each seat to 100%. For cumulative seat projections (1 seat per 100%), a recalculation excluding probabilities <20% exists to further reduce FLB.
Click any seat or party for more detail, or use any of the buttons at the top of the page for other areas of analysis. For feedback or questions, please contact hello@bookelections.com or visit twitter.com/bookelections.
| Party | Seats | Swing |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 279 | -24 |
| Labour | 264 | +6 |
| SNP | 54 | +48 |
| Liberal Democrats | 26 | -31 |
| DUP | 9 | +1 |
| Sinn Fein | 5 | 0 |
| SDLP | 3 | 0 |
| UKIP | 3 | +1 |
| PC | 3 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| Speaker | 1 | 0 |
| Green | 1 | 0 |
| Respect | 1 | 0 |
| Party | Seats | Swing |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 279 | -24 |
| Labour | 270 | +12 |
| SNP | 49 | +43 |
| Liberal Democrats | 25 | -32 |
| DUP | 9 | +1 |
| Sinn Fein | 5 | 0 |
| UKIP | 4 | +2 |
| PC | 3 | 0 |
| SDLP | 3 | 0 |
| Respect | 1 | 0 |
| Green | 1 | 0 |
| Speaker | 1 | 0 |
| UUP | 1 | +1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| Party | Seats | Swing |
|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 270 | -33 |
| Labour | 265 | +7 |
| SNP | 45 | +39 |
| Liberal Democrats | 29 | -28 |
| UKIP | 16 | +14 |
| DUP | 8 | 0 |
| Sinn Fein | 5 | 0 |
| PC | 3 | 0 |
| SDLP | 3 | 0 |
| Other | 2 | +1 |
| UUP | 1 | +1 |
| Respect | 1 | 0 |
| Green | 1 | 0 |
| Speaker | 1 | 0 |
Last win and swings are measured by winning party at time of last election or by-election, regardless of MP status at end of parliament.