bookelections.com | Election Odds Analysis

Parties

Liberal Democrats

Likely losses

Seat	2015 Favourite	Loss %
1. Norwich South	Labour	95.3%
2. Argyll and Bute	SNP	94.1%
3. Brent Central	Labour	92.4%
4. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	SNP	92.3%
5. Redcar	Labour	92%
6. Manchester Withington	Labour	91.2%
7. Burnley	Labour	87.7%
8. Bristol West	Labour	87.3%
9. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey	SNP	86.2%
10. Edinburgh West	SNP	86.1%
11. North East Fife	SNP	84.8%
12. Gordon	SNP	84.8%
13. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	SNP	84%
14. Solihull	Conservatives	82.4%
15. Mid Dorset and North Poole	Conservatives	80.7%
16. Somerton and Frome	Conservatives	79%
17. Cardiff Central	Labour	78.9%
18. St Austell and Newquay	Conservatives	78.1%
19. Ross, Skye and Lochaber	SNP	75.7%
20. Bradford East	Labour	75.7%
21. Chippenham	Conservatives	74.6%
22. Taunton Deane	Conservatives	73.7%
23. Berwick-upon-Tweed	Conservatives	73.5%
24. East Dunbartonshire	SNP	72.4%
25. Wells	Conservatives	71.4%
26. Hornsey and Wood Green	Labour	70.4%
27. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Conservatives	68%
28. Portsmouth South	Conservatives	66.1%
29. North Devon	Conservatives	65.3%
30. Torbay	Conservatives	53.1%
31. Birmingham, Yardley	Labour	51.2%

Likely gains

None

Potential seats (by probability)

Seat	Last Win	2015 Favourite	Win %
1. Westmorland and Lonsdale	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	89.3%
2. North Norfolk	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	85.8%
3. Twickenham	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	82.6%
4. Colchester	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	81.8%
5. Orkney and Shetland	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	80.6%
6. Sheffield, Hallam	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	78.3%
7. Lewes	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	78.3%
8. Thornbury and Yate	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	77.8%
9. Carshalton and Wallington	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	75.7%
10. Yeovil	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	74.4%
11. Cambridge	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	71.9%
12. Hazel Grove	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	71.4%
13. Southport	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	71.3%
14. Bath	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	69.9%
15. Leeds North West	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	69.2%
16. Eastbourne	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	68.9%
17. Eastleigh	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	67.6%
18. Kingston and Surbiton	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	65.5%
19. Sutton and Cheam	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	64.7%
20. Cheltenham	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	64.6%
21. Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	63.1%
22. Ceredigion	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	59.7%
23. Brecon and Radnorshire	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	59%
24. Cheadle	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	55.1%
25. North Cornwall	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	52.4%
26. St Ives	Liberal Democrats	Liberal Democrats	49.3%
27. Birmingham, Yardley	Liberal Democrats	Labour	48.8%
28. Torbay	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	46.9%
29. North Devon	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	34.7%
30. Portsmouth South	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	33.9%
31. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	32%
32. Hornsey and Wood Green	Liberal Democrats	Labour	29.6%
33. Montgomeryshire	Conservatives	Conservatives	28.6%
34. Wells	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	28.6%
35. East Dunbartonshire	Liberal Democrats	SNP	27.6%
36. Watford	Conservatives	Conservatives	27.3%
37. Berwick-upon-Tweed	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	26.5%
38. Taunton Deane	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	26.3%
39. Chippenham	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	25.4%
40. Ross, Skye and Lochaber	Liberal Democrats	SNP	24.3%
41. Bradford East	Liberal Democrats	Labour	24.3%
42. Maidstone and The Weald	Conservatives	Conservatives	22.2%
43. St Austell and Newquay	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	21.9%
44. Cardiff Central	Liberal Democrats	Labour	21.1%
45. Somerton and Frome	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	21%
46. Mid Dorset and North Poole	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	19.3%
47. Solihull	Liberal Democrats	Conservatives	17.6%
48. Oxford West and Abingdon	Conservatives	Conservatives	17.4%
49. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	Liberal Democrats	SNP	16%
50. Gordon	Liberal Democrats	SNP	15.2%
51. North East Fife	Liberal Democrats	SNP	15.2%
52. Truro and Falmouth	Conservatives	Conservatives	14.9%
53. Edinburgh West	Liberal Democrats	SNP	13.9%
54. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey	Liberal Democrats	SNP	13.8%
55. Bristol West	Liberal Democrats	Labour	12.7%
56. Burnley	Liberal Democrats	Labour	12.3%
57. South East Cornwall	Conservatives	Conservatives	12%
58. Winchester	Conservatives	Conservatives	10.9%
59. St Albans	Conservatives	Conservatives	10.6%
60. Newton Abbot	Conservatives	Conservatives	10.5%
61. Newcastle upon Tyne North	Labour	Labour	9.4%
62. Hereford and South Herefordshire	Conservatives	Conservatives	8.9%
63. Harrogate and Knaresborough	Conservatives	Conservatives	8.8%
64. Newport East	Labour	Labour	8.8%
65. Manchester Withington	Liberal Democrats	Labour	8.8%
66. Chesterfield	Labour	Labour	8.8%
67. West Dorset	Conservatives	Conservatives	8.8%
68. Richmond Park	Conservatives	Conservatives	8.7%
69. Redcar	Liberal Democrats	Labour	8%
70. Torridge and West Devon	Conservatives	Conservatives	7.8%
71. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	Liberal Democrats	SNP	7.7%
72. Swansea West	Labour	Labour	7.6%
73. Brent Central	Liberal Democrats	Labour	7.6%
74. City of Durham	Labour	Labour	7.4%
75. Rochdale	Labour	Labour	7.2%
76. Totnes	Conservatives	Conservatives	7.2%
77. Romsey and Southampton North	Conservatives	Conservatives	7.1%
78. South East Cambridgeshire	Conservatives	Conservatives	6.3%
79. Argyll and Bute	Liberal Democrats	SNP	5.9%
80. Ashfield	Labour	Labour	5.8%
81. Pontypridd	Labour	Labour	5.7%
82. Oxford East	Labour	Labour	5.7%
83. Streatham	Labour	Labour	5.7%
84. Hampstead and Kilburn	Labour	Labour	5.6%
85. Bosworth	Conservatives	Conservatives	5.5%
86. Woking	Conservatives	Conservatives	5.2%
87. Chelmsford	Conservatives	Conservatives	5.2%
88. Weston-Super-Mare	Conservatives	Conservatives	5.1%
89. York Outer	Conservatives	Conservatives	5.1%
90. South Cambridgeshire	Conservatives	Conservatives	5%
91. Sheffield Central	Labour	Labour	5%
92. Camborne and Redruth	Conservatives	Conservatives	4.8%
93. Norwich South	Liberal Democrats	Labour	4.7%
94. Oldham East and Saddleworth	Labour	Labour	4.7%
95. Harborough	Conservatives	Conservatives	4.7%
96. Kingston upon Hull North	Labour	Labour	4.6%
97. Guildford	Conservatives	Conservatives	4.5%
98. Broadland	Conservatives	Conservatives	4.5%
99. North Wiltshire	Conservatives	Conservatives	4.2%
100. West Worcestershire	Conservatives	Conservatives	4.1%
101. North Dorset	Conservatives	Conservatives	4%
102. Salisbury	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.7%
103. North Herefordshire	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.7%
104. The Cotswolds	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.7%
105. Bournemouth East	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.6%
106. Newbury	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.6%
107. Tewkesbury	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.6%
108. Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Labour	Labour	3.6%
109. Islington South and Finsbury	Labour	Labour	3.4%
110. Huntingdon	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.3%
111. Gainsborough	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.2%
112. Horsham	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.2%
113. Bridgwater and West Somerset	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.2%
114. Ludlow	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.2%
115. Mid Sussex	Conservatives	Conservatives	3.2%