Parties

Labour

Likely losses

Seat2015 FavouriteLoss %
1. Dundee WestSNP92.6%
2. Ochil and South PerthshireSNP91.2%
3. FalkirkSNP89.1%
4. Glasgow SouthSNP87.8%
5. North Ayrshire and ArranSNP87.8%
6. Kilmarnock and LoudounSNP86.3%
7. Edinburgh EastSNP86.2%
8. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastSNP86.2%
9. Glasgow NorthSNP85.7%
10. Ayr, Carrick and CumnockSNP85.3%
11. LivingstonSNP85.2%
12. MidlothianSNP84.9%
13. Lanark and Hamilton EastSNP84.8%
14. StirlingSNP84.8%
15. Aberdeen NorthSNP84.4%
16. West DunbartonshireSNP83.7%
17. Glasgow EastSNP83.7%
18. Glasgow South WestSNP82.5%
19. Airdrie and ShottsSNP78.7%
20. Aberdeen SouthSNP78.3%
21. Linlithgow and East FalkirkSNP78.3%
22. Edinburgh South WestSNP77.8%
23. Glasgow CentralSNP77.8%
24. Motherwell and WishawSNP76.9%
25. InverclydeSNP75.7%
26. East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowSNP73.7%
27. Glasgow North WestSNP72.4%
28. Edinburgh North and LeithSNP71.4%
29. Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathSNP70.2%
30. Central AyrshireSNP68.2%
31. Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthSNP67.5%
32. GlenrothesSNP66.7%
33. Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthSNP66.7%
34. Dumfries and GallowaySNP66.2%
35. East LothianSNP61.4%
36. Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillSNP58.8%
37. Dunfermline and West FifeSNP52.2%
38. East RenfrewshireSNP51.2%

Likely gains

SeatFromGain %
1. Brent CentralLiberal Democrats92.4%
2. Manchester WithingtonLiberal Democrats91.2%
3. RedcarLiberal Democrats84.1%
4. Norwich SouthLiberal Democrats81.3%
5. BurnleyLiberal Democrats81%
6. HendonConservatives80.4%
7. Brentford and IsleworthConservatives80%
8. Cardiff CentralLiberal Democrats78.9%
9. Cardiff NorthConservatives77.6%
10. Wolverhampton South WestConservatives77.6%
11. Enfield NorthConservatives75.8%
12. Bradford EastLiberal Democrats75.7%
13. Lancaster and FleetwoodConservatives75.5%
14. North WarwickshireConservatives72.8%
15. Weaver ValeConservatives72.4%
16. SherwoodConservatives72.3%
17. Bristol WestLiberal Democrats71.4%
18. Plymouth, Sutton and DevonportConservatives71.1%
19. WaveneyConservatives70.8%
20. Hornsey and Wood GreenLiberal Democrats70.4%
21. Warrington SouthConservatives69.9%
22. DewsburyConservatives69.9%
23. CarlisleConservatives69.9%
24. HoveConservatives69.2%
25. BedfordConservatives68.2%
26. BroxtoweConservatives67.5%
27. StroudConservatives66.7%
28. Hastings and RyeConservatives65.1%
29. Morecambe and LunesdaleConservatives64.2%
30. Bury NorthConservatives64.2%
31. Amber ValleyConservatives63.8%
32. ErewashConservatives63.6%
33. LincolnConservatives62.4%
34. City of ChesterConservatives61.4%
35. Ealing Central and ActonConservatives61.4%
36. Cannock ChaseConservatives60.3%
37. Wirral WestConservatives60.2%
38. KeighleyConservatives57.9%
39. Brighton, KemptownConservatives57.2%
40. NuneatonConservatives56.6%
41. Harrow EastConservatives55%
42. IpswichConservatives54.9%
43. Stockton SouthConservatives53.9%
44. Birmingham, YardleyLiberal Democrats51.2%

Potential seats (by probability)

SeatLast Win2015 FavouriteWin %
1. Liverpool, WavertreeLabourLabour100%
2. Liverpool, WaltonLabourLabour100%
3. Liverpool, West DerbyLabourLabour100%
4. MakerfieldLabourLabour100%
5. Manchester CentralLabourLabour100%
6. Liverpool, RiversideLabourLabour100%
7. Leyton and WansteadLabourLabour100%
8. LeighLabourLabour100%
9. Lewisham EastLabourLabour100%
10. Lewisham West and PengeLabourLabour100%
11. Coventry North EastLabourLabour100%
12. Manchester, GortonLabourLabour100%
13. MiddlesbroughLabourLabour100%
14. WansbeckLabourLabour100%
15. North TynesideLabourLabour100%
16. North West DurhamLabourLabour100%
17. Bristol SouthLabourLabour100%
18. North DurhamLabourLabour100%
19. CaerphillyLabourLabour100%
20. Mitcham and MordenLabourLabour100%
21. Newcastle upon Tyne CentralLabourLabour100%
22. Wythenshawe and Sale EastLabourLabour100%
23. Camberwell and PeckhamLabourLabour100%
24. Croydon NorthLabourLabour100%
25. Leicester SouthLabourLabour100%
26. Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonLabourLabour100%
27. Hackney South and ShoreditchLabourLabour100%
28. HaltonLabourLabour100%
29. Hayes and HarlingtonLabourLabour100%
30. Greenwich and WoolwichLabourLabour100%
31. EdmontonLabourLabour100%
32. WiganLabourLabour100%
33. Garston and HalewoodLabourLabour100%
34. GatesheadLabourLabour100%
35. West HamLabourLabour100%
36. East HamLabourLabour100%
37. Ealing, SouthallLabourLabour100%
38. JarrowLabourLabour100%
39. Leeds CentralLabourLabour100%
40. Leeds WestLabourLabour100%
41. Leicester EastLabourLabour100%
42. IslwynLabourLabour100%
43. Dulwich and West NorwoodLabourLabour100%
44. Ealing NorthLabourLabour100%
45. Houghton and Sunderland SouthLabourLabour100%
46. HuddersfieldLabourLabour100%
47. Islington NorthLabourLabour100%
48. WalthamstowLabourLabour100%
49. Newcastle upon Tyne EastLabourLabour100%
50. Birmingham, Perry BarrLabourLabour100%
51. Sheffield South EastLabourLabour100%
52. Birmingham, LadywoodLabourLabour100%
53. SedgefieldLabourLabour100%
54. Blackley and BroughtonLabourLabour100%
55. RhonddaLabourLabour100%
56. VauxhallLabourLabour100%
57. Birmingham, Hall GreenLabourLabour100%
58. BirkenheadLabourLabour100%
59. StockportLabourLabour100%
60. Stretford and UrmstonLabourLabour100%
61. Swansea EastLabourLabour100%
62. St Helens South and WhistonLabourLabour100%
63. St Helens NorthLabourLabour100%
64. TottenhamLabourLabour100%
65. BarkingLabourLabour100%
66. BlaydonLabourLabour100%
67. Birmingham, Hodge HillLabourLabour100%
68. PrestonLabourLabour100%
69. BootleLabourLabour100%
70. WallaseyLabourLabour100%
71. Poplar and LimehouseLabourLabour100%
72. Holborn and St PancrasLabourLabour96.7%
73. Coventry North WestLabourLabour96.7%
74. Nottingham EastLabourLabour96.7%
75. Cynon ValleyLabourLabour96.7%
76. TorfaenLabourLabour96.7%
77. Denton and ReddishLabourLabour96.7%
78. NeathLabourLabour96.7%
79. Islington South and FinsburyLabourLabour96.6%
80. Cardiff South and PenarthLabourLabour96.3%
81. Coventry SouthLabourLabour96.3%
82. WarleyLabourLabour96.3%
83. OgmoreLabourLabour96.3%
84. BassetlawLabourLabour96.3%
85. West LancashireLabourLabour96.3%
86. South ShieldsLabourLabour96.3%
87. HemsworthLabourLabour96.3%
88. Bolton North EastLabourLabour96.3%
89. Lewisham, DeptfordLabourLabour96.3%
90. Stockton NorthLabourLabour96.3%
91. Oldham West and RoytonLabourLabour96.3%
92. Salford and EcclesLabourLabour96.3%
93. TynemouthLabourLabour96.3%
94. Derby SouthLabourLabour96.3%
95. Barnsley CentralLabourLabour96.3%
96. Sunderland CentralLabourLabour96.3%
97. Warrington NorthLabourLabour96.3%
98. Ashton-under-LyneLabourLabour96.3%
99. Blyth ValleyLabourLabour96.2%
100. Bishop AucklandLabourLabour96.2%
101. BlackburnLabourLabour96.2%
102. Bradford SouthLabourLabour96.2%
103. EasingtonLabourLabour95.8%
104. Leeds North EastLabourLabour95.8%
105. BolsoverLabourLabour95.4%
106. AberavonLabourLabour95.4%
107. Nottingham NorthLabourLabour95.4%
108. West Bromwich WestLabourLabour95.4%
109. Sheffield, Brightside and HillsboroughLabourLabour95.4%
110. Washington and Sunderland WestLabourLabour95.4%
111. Brent NorthLabourLabour95.4%
112. Cardiff WestLabourLabour95.4%
113. Leeds EastLabourLabour95.4%
114. Sheffield, HeeleyLabourLabour95.4%
115. KnowsleyLabourLabour95.4%
116. WrexhamLabourLabour95.3%
117. Bolton South EastLabourLabour95.3%
118. CopelandLabourLabour95.3%
119. Bristol EastLabourLabour95.3%
120. Ilford SouthLabourLabour95.3%
121. Ellesmere Port and NestonLabourLabour95.3%
122. Birmingham, ErdingtonLabourLabour95.3%
123. Worsley and Eccles SouthLabourLabour95.3%
124. Doncaster CentralLabourLabour94.9%
125. Leicester WestLabourLabour94.9%
126. SloughLabourLabour94.8%
127. Newport WestLabourLabour94.4%
128. Kingston upon Hull West and HessleLabourLabour94.4%
129. Luton NorthLabourLabour94.4%
130. Normanton, Pontefract and CastlefordLabourLabour94.4%
131. Barnsley EastLabourLabour94.4%
132. Wolverhampton South EastLabourLabour94.4%
133. Oxford EastLabourLabour94.3%
134. Sefton CentralLabourLabour94.3%
135. StreathamLabourLabour94.3%
136. Stoke-on-Trent NorthLabourLabour94.3%
137. PontypriddLabourLabour94.3%
138. Feltham and HestonLabourLabour94.3%
139. West Bromwich EastLabourLabour94.3%
140. DarlingtonLabourLabour94.3%
141. WorkingtonLabourLabour94.3%
142. Bethnal Green and BowLabourLabour94.3%
143. Kingston upon Hull EastLabourLabour94.2%
144. Stoke-on-Trent CentralLabourLabour93.6%
145. Stoke-on-Trent SouthLabourLabour93.6%
146. Erith and ThamesmeadLabourLabour93.5%
147. Blaenau GwentLabourLabour93.5%
148. Birmingham, Selly OakLabourLabour93.4%
149. DelynLabourLabour93.4%
150. Wentworth and DearneLabourLabour92.7%
151. Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLabourLabour92.7%
152. Doncaster NorthLabourLabour92.7%
153. Stalybridge and HydeLabourLabour92.7%
154. York CentralLabourLabour92.7%
155. Clwyd SouthLabourLabour92.6%
156. Alyn and DeesideLabourLabour92.6%
157. City of DurhamLabourLabour92.6%
158. BridgendLabourLabour92.6%
159. Brent CentralLiberal DemocratsLabour92.4%
160. ExeterLabourLabour92.4%
161. Swansea WestLabourLabour92.4%
162. Batley and SpenLabourLabour92.2%
163. Vale of ClwydLabourLabour92.1%
164. Oldham East and SaddleworthLabourLabour92%
165. Sheffield CentralLabourLabour91.4%
166. Nottingham SouthLabourLabour91.3%
167. Luton SouthLabourLabour91.3%
168. GowerLabourLabour91.3%
169. HammersmithLabourLabour91.2%
170. ChesterfieldLabourLabour91.2%
171. Newport EastLabourLabour91.2%
172. Manchester WithingtonLiberal DemocratsLabour91.2%
173. ChorleyLabourLabour91.1%
174. Blackpool SouthLabourLabour91%
175. Kingston upon Hull NorthLabourLabour90.8%
176. Newcastle upon Tyne NorthLabourLabour90.6%
177. Dagenham and RainhamLabourLabour90.5%
178. Harrow WestLabourLabour90.5%
179. Bury SouthLabourLabour90.4%
180. TootingLabourLabour90.1%
181. Wolverhampton North EastLabourLabour90%
182. Don ValleyLabourLabour89.9%
183. HyndburnLabourLabour89.3%
184. Birmingham, NorthfieldLabourLabour89.3%
185. Southampton, TestLabourLabour88.7%
186. ScunthorpeLabourLabour88.4%
187. Barrow and FurnessLabourLabour88.2%
188. WakefieldLabourLabour87.9%
189. AshfieldLabourLabour87.7%
190. RochdaleLabourLabour87.3%
191. Wirral SouthLabourLabour87.1%
192. North East DerbyshireLabourLabour86.3%
193. Heywood and MiddletonLabourLabour86.3%
194. ElthamLabourLabour86.3%
195. GedlingLabourLabour86.2%
196. HartlepoolLabourLabour86%
197. Rother ValleyLabourLabour86%
198. Birmingham, EdgbastonLabourLabour85.1%
199. Morley and OutwoodLabourLabour85.1%
200. LlanelliLabourLabour85%
201. MansfieldLabourLabour84.6%
202. Westminster NorthLabourLabour84.2%
203. RedcarLiberal DemocratsLabour84.1%
204. Great GrimsbyLabourLabour84.1%
205. Bolton WestLabourLabour84%
206. Walsall SouthLabourLabour83.9%
207. Middlesbrough South and East ClevelandLabourLabour82.9%
208. Newcastle-under-LymeLabourLabour81.8%
209. Norwich SouthLiberal DemocratsLabour81.3%
210. BurnleyLiberal DemocratsLabour81%
211. Penistone and StocksbridgeLabourLabour80.9%
212. HendonConservativesLabour80.4%
213. Brentford and IsleworthConservativesLabour80%
214. Cardiff CentralLiberal DemocratsLabour78.9%
215. RotherhamLabourLabour78.3%
216. Plymouth, Moor ViewLabourLabour77.8%
217. Wolverhampton South WestConservativesLabour77.6%
218. Cardiff NorthConservativesLabour77.6%
219. Derby NorthLabourLabour77.1%
220. Enfield NorthConservativesLabour75.8%
221. TelfordLabourLabour75.8%
222. Bradford EastLiberal DemocratsLabour75.7%
223. CorbyLabourLabour75.7%
224. Lancaster and FleetwoodConservativesLabour75.5%
225. Hampstead and KilburnLabourLabour75.5%
226. Dudley NorthLabourLabour75.1%
227. HalifaxLabourLabour74.1%
228. Walsall NorthLabourLabour73.7%
229. North WarwickshireConservativesLabour72.8%
230. Weaver ValeConservativesLabour72.4%
231. SherwoodConservativesLabour72.3%
232. Bristol WestLiberal DemocratsLabour71.4%
233. Plymouth, Sutton and DevonportConservativesLabour71.1%
234. WaveneyConservativesLabour70.8%
235. Hornsey and Wood GreenLiberal DemocratsLabour70.4%
236. DewsburyConservativesLabour69.9%
237. Warrington SouthConservativesLabour69.9%
238. CarlisleConservativesLabour69.9%
239. HoveConservativesLabour69.2%
240. BedfordConservativesLabour68.2%
241. Ynys Môn (Anglesey)LabourLabour67.5%
242. BroxtoweConservativesLabour67.5%
243. StroudConservativesLabour66.7%
244. Southampton, ItchenLabourLabour65.5%
245. Hastings and RyeConservativesLabour65.1%
246. Bury NorthConservativesLabour64.2%
247. Morecambe and LunesdaleConservativesLabour64.2%
248. Amber ValleyConservativesLabour63.8%
249. ErewashConservativesLabour63.6%
250. Glasgow North EastLabourLabour63.6%
251. LincolnConservativesLabour62.4%
252. City of ChesterConservativesLabour61.4%
253. Ealing Central and ActonConservativesLabour61.4%
254. Cannock ChaseConservativesLabour60.3%
255. Wirral WestConservativesLabour60.2%
256. KeighleyConservativesLabour57.9%
257. Brighton, KemptownConservativesLabour57.2%
258. NuneatonConservativesLabour56.6%
259. Harrow EastConservativesLabour55%
260. IpswichConservativesLabour54.9%
261. Rutherglen and Hamilton WestLabourLabour54.5%
262. Stockton SouthConservativesLabour53.9%
263. Edinburgh SouthLabourLabour52.4%
264. Birmingham, YardleyLiberal DemocratsLabour51.2%
265. Northampton NorthConservativesConservatives48.8%
266. East RenfrewshireLabourSNP48.8%
267. Dunfermline and West FifeLabourSNP47.8%
268. Norwich NorthConservativesConservatives46.6%
269. Halesowen and Rowley RegisConservativesConservatives45.9%
270. Finchley and Golders GreenConservativesConservatives45%
271. PudseyConservativesConservatives44%
272. Croydon CentralConservativesConservatives44%
273. Bradford WestRespectRespect42.5%
274. StevenageConservativesConservatives41.3%
275. Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillLabourSNP41.2%
276. South SwindonConservativesConservatives40.9%
277. Crewe and NantwichConservativesConservatives40%
278. ArfonPCPC40%
279. Rossendale and DarwenConservativesConservatives39.3%
280. East LothianLabourSNP38.6%
281. PeterboroughConservativesConservatives37.5%
282. Milton Keynes SouthConservativesConservatives37.5%
283. Carmarthen West and South PembrokeshireConservativesConservatives36.9%
284. Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats36.9%
285. GloucesterConservativesConservatives36.9%
286. WorcesterConservativesConservatives36.5%
287. PendleConservativesConservatives36.4%
288. Colne ValleyConservativesConservatives34.5%
289. Dumfries and GallowayLabourSNP33.8%
290. Elmet and RothwellConservativesConservatives33.8%
291. GlenrothesLabourSNP33.3%
292. Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthLabourSNP33.3%
293. South RibbleConservativesConservatives33.3%
294. High PeakConservativesConservatives33.3%
295. Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthLabourSNP32.5%
296. CleethorpesConservativesConservatives32.2%
297. Blackpool North and CleveleysConservativesConservatives32.2%
298. Central AyrshireLabourSNP31.8%
299. Leeds North WestLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats30.8%
300. Calder ValleyConservativesConservatives30.8%
301. StourbridgeConservativesConservatives30%
302. Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathLabourSNP29.8%
303. Dudley SouthConservativesConservatives29.5%
304. Edinburgh North and LeithLabourSNP28.6%
305. Great YarmouthConservativesConservatives28.3%
306. CambridgeLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats28.1%
307. Ilford NorthConservativesConservatives28.1%
308. Glasgow North WestLabourSNP27.6%
309. AberconwyConservativesConservatives27.4%
310. ThurrockConservativesUKIP27.3%
311. Warwick and LeamingtonConservativesConservatives26.7%
312. LoughboroughConservativesConservatives26.3%
313. East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowLabourSNP26.3%
314. KingswoodConservativesConservatives25.9%
315. InverclydeLabourSNP24.3%
316. Vale of GlamorganConservativesConservatives23.5%
317. Motherwell and WishawLabourSNP23.1%
318. Edinburgh South WestLabourSNP22.2%
319. Glasgow CentralLabourSNP22.2%
320. Carmarthen East and DinefwrPCPC22.2%
321. Portsmouth NorthConservativesConservatives22.1%
322. Linlithgow and East FalkirkLabourSNP21.7%
323. Sheffield, HallamLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats21.7%
324. Aberdeen SouthLabourSNP21.7%
325. Filton and Bradley StokeConservativesConservatives21.7%
326. Brighton, PavilionGreenGreen21.7%
327. Reading WestConservativesConservatives21.7%
328. Airdrie and ShottsLabourSNP21.3%
329. Bristol North WestConservativesConservatives21.3%
330. CrawleyConservativesConservatives19.3%
331. North West LeicestershireConservativesConservatives18.5%
332. RedditchConservativesConservatives18.5%
333. Glasgow South WestLabourSNP17.5%
334. Preseli PembrokeshireConservativesConservatives17.5%
335. StaffordConservativesConservatives16.4%
336. Glasgow EastLabourSNP16.3%
337. West DunbartonshireLabourSNP16.3%
338. TamworthConservativesConservatives16.3%
339. South Basildon and East ThurrockConservativesConservatives16.3%
340. Brigg and GooleConservativesConservatives16.2%
341. RugbyConservativesConservatives16%
342. Aberdeen NorthLabourSNP15.6%
343. Northampton SouthConservativesConservatives15.6%
344. StirlingLabourSNP15.2%
345. Lanark and Hamilton EastLabourSNP15.2%
346. MidlothianLabourSNP15.1%
347. LivingstonLabourSNP14.8%
348. Ayr, Carrick and CumnockLabourSNP14.7%
349. Chatham and AylesfordConservativesConservatives14.5%
350. Glasgow NorthLabourSNP14.3%
351. North SwindonConservativesConservatives14%
352. Edinburgh WestLiberal DemocratsSNP13.9%
353. Edinburgh EastLabourSNP13.8%
354. Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastLabourSNP13.8%
355. Kilmarnock and LoudounLabourSNP13.7%
356. DoverConservativesConservatives13.6%
357. Scarborough and WhitbyConservativesConservatives13.6%
358. WatfordConservativesConservatives13.6%
359. BurtonConservativesConservatives13.6%
360. Enfield, SouthgateConservativesConservatives13.6%
361. HarlowConservativesConservatives12.8%
362. North East SomersetConservativesConservatives12.3%
363. Reading EastConservativesConservatives12.3%
364. North Ayrshire and ArranLabourSNP12.2%
365. Glasgow SouthLabourSNP12.2%
366. South DorsetConservativesConservatives11.7%
367. BatterseaConservativesConservatives11%
368. FalkirkLabourSNP10.9%
369. GraveshamConservativesConservatives10.4%
370. South DerbyshireConservativesConservatives10.4%
371. Staffordshire MoorlandsConservativesConservatives10.3%
372. Ochil and South PerthshireLabourSNP8.8%
373. Milton Keynes NorthConservativesConservatives8.8%
374. Clwyd WestConservativesConservatives7.9%
375. Dundee WestLabourSNP7.4%
376. KetteringConservativesConservatives7.4%
377. Gillingham and RainhamConservativesConservatives5.9%
378. MonmouthConservativesConservatives5.7%
379. Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)SNPSNP5.7%
380. ShipleyConservativesConservatives5.5%
381. South ThanetConservativesUKIP5%
382. DartfordConservativesConservatives4.5%
383. Shrewsbury and AtchamConservativesConservatives4.5%
384. The WrekinConservativesConservatives4.5%
385. Sittingbourne and SheppeyConservativesConservatives4.2%
386. Folkestone and HytheConservativesConservatives4.2%
387. York OuterConservativesConservatives4.1%
388. WellingboroughConservativesConservatives4.1%
389. Camborne and RedruthConservativesConservatives3.8%
390. FyldeConservativesConservatives3.8%
391. Selby and AinstyConservativesConservatives3.7%
392. PutneyConservativesConservatives3.7%
393. KensingtonConservativesConservatives3.7%
394. East DunbartonshireLiberal DemocratsSNP3.7%
395. Perth and North PerthshireSNPSNP3.6%
396. Harwich and North EssexConservativesConservatives3.5%
397. Rochford and Southend EastConservativesConservatives3.5%
398. Croydon SouthConservativesConservatives3.3%
399. Portsmouth SouthLiberal DemocratsConservatives3.3%
400. Forest of DeanConservativesConservatives3.2%
401. Mid DerbyshireConservativesConservatives3.2%
402. North ThanetConservativesConservatives3.2%