Parties

UKIP

Likely losses

Seat2015 FavouriteLoss %
1. Rochester and StroodConservatives69.2%

Likely gains

SeatFromGain %
1. South ThanetConservatives57%
2. ThurrockConservatives55.3%

Potential seats (by probability)

SeatLast Win2015 FavouriteWin %
1. ClactonUKIPUKIP87.9%
2. South ThanetConservativesUKIP57%
3. ThurrockConservativesUKIP55.3%
4. Boston and SkegnessConservativesConservatives33.3%
5. Castle PointConservativesConservatives31.6%
6. Rochester and StroodUKIPConservatives30.8%
7. RotherhamLabourLabour21.7%
8. Dudley NorthLabourLabour20.8%
9. North ThanetConservativesConservatives19%
10. Louth and HorncastleConservativesConservatives17.5%
11. South Basildon and East ThurrockConservativesConservatives16.3%
12. Sittingbourne and SheppeyConservativesConservatives15.2%
13. Rother ValleyLabourLabour14%
14. Folkestone and HytheConservativesConservatives14%
15. HartlepoolLabourLabour14%
16. Isle of WightConservativesConservatives13.8%
17. Heywood and MiddletonLabourLabour13.7%
18. Plymouth, Moor ViewLabourLabour13.6%
19. North West CambridgeshireConservativesConservatives11.5%
20. Harwich and North EssexConservativesConservatives11.5%
21. Weston-Super-MareConservativesConservatives11.3%
22. Wyre ForestConservativesConservatives11.1%
23. EastleighLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats9.8%
24. Walsall NorthLabourLabour9.8%
25. Dagenham and RainhamLabourLabour9.5%
26. Great GrimsbyLabourLabour9.2%
27. ChristchurchConservativesConservatives9.1%
28. Newcastle-under-LymeLabourLabour8.7%
29. St Austell and NewquayLiberal DemocratsConservatives8.6%
30. Penistone and StocksbridgeLabourLabour8.6%
31. MansfieldLabourLabour8.1%
32. Brigg and GooleConservativesConservatives8%
33. RedcarLiberal DemocratsLabour8%
34. SpelthorneConservativesConservatives7.4%
35. Bournemouth WestConservativesConservatives7.4%
36. Walsall SouthLabourLabour7.4%
37. South West NorfolkConservativesConservatives7.3%
38. Wentworth and DearneLabourLabour7.3%
39. Doncaster NorthLabourLabour7.3%
40. Hornchurch and UpminsterConservativesConservatives7.3%
41. North West HampshireConservativesConservatives7.3%
42. Rayleigh and WickfordConservativesConservatives7.3%
43. ScunthorpeLabourLabour7.2%
44. South DerbyshireConservativesConservatives7.2%
45. GraveshamConservativesConservatives7.2%
46. Chatham and AylesfordConservativesConservatives7.2%
47. Forest of DeanConservativesConservatives7.2%
48. DartfordConservativesConservatives7.2%
49. Rochford and Southend EastConservativesConservatives7.1%
50. Camborne and RedruthConservativesConservatives6.6%
51. Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonConservativesConservatives6.6%
52. CanterburyConservativesConservatives6.6%
53. AshfordConservativesConservatives6.5%
54. AshfieldLabourLabour6.5%
55. Blaenau GwentLabourLabour6.5%
56. CrawleyConservativesConservatives6.5%
57. Bexleyheath and CrayfordConservativesConservatives6.5%
58. Portsmouth SouthLiberal DemocratsConservatives6.5%
59. Stoke-on-Trent CentralLabourLabour6.4%
60. HavantConservativesConservatives6.4%
61. Stoke-on-Trent SouthLabourLabour6.4%
62. KetteringConservativesConservatives6.4%
63. The WrekinConservativesConservatives6.3%
64. Gillingham and RainhamConservativesConservatives5.9%
65. Great YarmouthConservativesConservatives5.8%
66. Kingston upon Hull EastLabourLabour5.8%
67. West Bromwich EastLabourLabour5.7%
68. WorkingtonLabourLabour5.7%
69. Bexhill and BattleConservativesConservatives5.7%
70. Truro and FalmouthConservativesConservatives5.7%
71. East Worthing and ShorehamConservativesConservatives5.7%
72. Southend WestConservativesConservatives5.7%
73. Stoke-on-Trent NorthLabourLabour5.7%
74. Aldridge-BrownhillsConservativesConservatives5.7%
75. North East CambridgeshireConservativesConservatives5.6%
76. Normanton, Pontefract and CastlefordLabourLabour5.6%
77. Newton AbbotConservativesConservatives5.6%
78. Wolverhampton South EastLabourLabour5.6%
79. LichfieldConservativesConservatives5.6%
80. Kingston upon Hull West and HessleLabourLabour5.6%
81. North ShropshireConservativesConservatives5.6%
82. StoneConservativesConservatives5.6%
83. Shrewsbury and AtchamConservativesConservatives5.6%
84. Don ValleyLabourLabour5.6%
85. Barnsley EastLabourLabour5.6%
86. Staffordshire MoorlandsConservativesConservatives5.5%
87. Mid DerbyshireConservativesConservatives5.5%
88. RochdaleLabourLabour5.5%
89. Amber ValleyConservativesLabour5.3%
90. BraintreeConservativesConservatives5.2%
91. Leicester WestLabourLabour5.1%
92. MaldonConservativesConservatives5.1%
93. Doncaster CentralLabourLabour5.1%
94. WaveneyConservativesLabour5.1%
95. Scarborough and WhitbyConservativesConservatives5%
96. North East DerbyshireLabourLabour5%
97. East DevonConservativesConservatives5%
98. DoverConservativesConservatives5%
99. ElthamLabourLabour5%
100. BasingstokeConservativesConservatives4.8%
101. North West NorfolkConservativesConservatives4.7%
102. Uxbridge and South RuislipConservativesConservatives4.7%
103. BuckinghamSpeakerSpeaker4.7%
104. Bolton South EastLabourLabour4.7%
105. Ribble ValleyConservativesConservatives4.7%
106. Mid NorfolkConservativesConservatives4.7%
107. AylesburyConservativesConservatives4.7%
108. TelfordLabourLabour4.7%
109. Plymouth, Sutton and DevonportConservativesLabour4.7%
110. KnowsleyLabourLabour4.6%
111. BolsoverLabourLabour4.6%
112. AberavonLabourLabour4.6%
113. West SuffolkConservativesConservatives4.6%
114. Sheffield, Brightside and HillsboroughLabourLabour4.6%
115. GosportConservativesConservatives4.6%
116. WellingboroughConservativesConservatives4.6%
117. West Bromwich WestLabourLabour4.6%
118. ErewashConservativesLabour4.6%
119. BromsgroveConservativesConservatives4.6%
120. Leeds EastLabourLabour4.6%
121. Sheffield, HeeleyLabourLabour4.6%
122. LudlowConservativesConservatives4.6%
123. West DorsetConservativesConservatives4.6%
124. Washington and Sunderland WestLabourLabour4.6%
125. CleethorpesConservativesConservatives4.6%
126. Haltemprice and HowdenConservativesConservatives4.6%
127. Kingston upon Hull NorthLabourLabour4.6%
128. TewkesburyConservativesConservatives4.6%
129. RedditchConservativesConservatives4.6%
130. Nottingham NorthLabourLabour4.6%
131. Sutton ColdfieldConservativesConservatives4.6%
132. BosworthConservativesConservatives4.5%
133. Morley and OutwoodLabourLabour4.5%
134. Richmond (Yorks)ConservativesConservatives4.5%
135. Mid SussexConservativesConservatives4.5%
136. North West LeicestershireConservativesConservatives4.4%
137. North WarwickshireConservativesLabour4.3%
138. EasingtonLabourLabour4.2%
139. East YorkshireConservativesConservatives4.2%
140. Cannock ChaseConservativesLabour4.2%
141. YeovilLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats4.2%
142. Bury St EdmundsConservativesConservatives4.2%
143. Grantham and StamfordConservativesConservatives4.2%
144. NewarkConservativesConservatives4.2%
145. WithamConservativesConservatives4.2%
146. Bournemouth EastConservativesConservatives4.1%
147. GainsboroughConservativesConservatives4.1%
148. Portsmouth NorthConservativesConservatives4.1%
149. Dudley SouthConservativesConservatives4.1%
150. South East CambridgeshireConservativesConservatives4%
151. Torridge and West DevonConservativesConservatives4%
152. South DorsetConservativesConservatives4%
153. BroadlandConservativesConservatives4%
154. Southampton, ItchenLabourLabour3.9%
155. Basildon and BillericayConservativesConservatives3.8%
156. Bishop AucklandLabourLabour3.8%
157. SouthportLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats3.8%
158. Blyth ValleyLabourLabour3.8%
159. Thirsk and MaltonConservativesConservatives3.8%
160. Bradford SouthLabourLabour3.8%
161. South East CornwallConservativesConservatives3.7%
162. St IvesLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats3.7%
163. South Holland and The DeepingsConservativesConservatives3.7%
164. HalifaxLabourLabour3.7%
165. WarleyLabourLabour3.7%
166. South LeicestershireConservativesConservatives3.7%
167. Mid BedfordshireConservativesConservatives3.7%
168. Stockton NorthLabourLabour3.7%
169. South SuffolkConservativesConservatives3.7%
170. WealdenConservativesConservatives3.7%
171. East SurreyConservativesConservatives3.7%
172. Central DevonConservativesConservatives3.7%
173. Suffolk CoastalConservativesConservatives3.7%
174. Barnsley CentralLabourLabour3.7%
175. MeridenConservativesConservatives3.7%
176. South ShieldsLabourLabour3.7%
177. Ashton-under-LyneLabourLabour3.7%
178. HemsworthLabourLabour3.7%
179. SherwoodConservativesLabour3.7%
180. Tunbridge WellsConservativesConservatives3.7%
181. ChichesterConservativesConservatives3.7%
182. DaventryConservativesConservatives3.7%
183. RomfordConservativesConservatives3.7%
184. TorbayLiberal DemocratsConservatives3.7%
185. CharnwoodConservativesConservatives3.7%
186. HertsmereConservativesConservatives3.7%
187. Derby NorthLabourLabour3.7%
188. OgmoreLabourLabour3.7%
189. Old Bexley and SidcupConservativesConservatives3.7%
190. Oldham West and RoytonLabourLabour3.7%
191. Sleaford and North HykehamConservativesConservatives3.7%
192. Beverley and HoldernessConservativesConservatives3.7%
193. Faversham and Mid KentConservativesConservatives3.7%
194. Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerConservativesConservatives3.7%
195. Tonbridge and MallingConservativesConservatives3.7%
196. Derby SouthLabourLabour3.7%
197. Halesowen and Rowley RegisConservativesConservatives3.7%
198. SevenoaksConservativesConservatives3.7%
199. Mid Dorset and North PooleLiberal DemocratsConservatives3.7%
200. BroxbourneConservativesConservatives3.7%
201. Rutland and MeltonConservativesConservatives3.7%
202. RushcliffeConservativesConservatives3.7%
203. Kenilworth and SouthamConservativesConservatives3.7%
204. Wolverhampton North EastLabourLabour3.6%
205. TotnesConservativesConservatives3.6%
206. West WorcestershireConservativesConservatives3.6%
207. York CentralLabourLabour3.6%
208. Middlesbrough South and East ClevelandLabourLabour3.6%
209. South CambridgeshireConservativesConservatives3.6%
210. NewburyConservativesConservatives3.6%
211. North NorfolkLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats3.6%
212. Hastings and RyeConservativesLabour3.6%
213. Northampton SouthConservativesConservatives3.6%
214. Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyLabourLabour3.6%
215. Bridgwater and West SomersetConservativesConservatives3.6%
216. BurtonConservativesConservatives3.6%
217. LincolnConservativesLabour3.6%
218. HyndburnLabourLabour3.5%
219. GuildfordConservativesConservatives3.5%
220. North DorsetConservativesConservatives3.5%
221. Romsey and Southampton NorthConservativesConservatives3.5%
222. Tiverton and HonitonConservativesConservatives3.4%
223. South NorthamptonshireConservativesConservatives3.4%
224. Central Suffolk and North IpswichConservativesConservatives3.3%
225. Blackpool North and CleveleysConservativesConservatives3.3%
226. HarlowConservativesConservatives3.3%
227. The CotswoldsConservativesConservatives3.3%
228. Coventry North WestLabourLabour3.3%
229. Denton and ReddishLabourLabour3.3%
230. Croydon SouthConservativesConservatives3.3%
231. Erith and ThamesmeadLabourLabour3.3%
232. Derbyshire DalesConservativesConservatives3.3%
233. NeathLabourLabour3.3%
234. Stratford-on-AvonConservativesConservatives3.3%
235. South NorfolkConservativesConservatives3.3%
236. Taunton DeaneLiberal DemocratsConservatives3.3%
237. SolihullLiberal DemocratsConservatives3.3%
238. TorfaenLabourLabour3.3%
239. StaffordConservativesConservatives3.3%
240. Nottingham EastLabourLabour3.3%
241. South West BedfordshireConservativesConservatives3.3%
242. Barrow and FurnessLabourLabour3.2%
243. Batley and SpenLabourLabour3.2%
244. Somerton and FromeLiberal DemocratsConservatives3.2%
245. North DevonLiberal DemocratsConservatives3.2%
246. ShipleyConservativesConservatives3.2%
247. HorshamConservativesConservatives3.2%
248. BurnleyLiberal DemocratsLabour3.1%