Parties

Conservatives

Likely losses

Seat2015 FavouriteLoss %
1. ThurrockUKIP82.6%
2. HendonLabour80.4%
3. Brentford and IsleworthLabour80%
4. Wolverhampton South WestLabour77.6%
5. Cardiff NorthLabour77.6%
6. North WarwickshireLabour77.1%
7. WaveneyLabour75.9%
8. SherwoodLabour75.9%
9. Plymouth, Sutton and DevonportLabour75.8%
10. Enfield NorthLabour75.8%
11. Lancaster and FleetwoodLabour75.5%
12. Weaver ValeLabour72.4%
13. Warrington SouthLabour69.9%
14. CarlisleLabour69.9%
15. DewsburyLabour69.9%
16. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleSNP69.9%
17. HoveLabour69.2%
18. Amber ValleyLabour69.1%
19. Hastings and RyeLabour68.7%
20. BedfordLabour68.2%
21. ErewashLabour68.2%
22. BroxtoweLabour67.5%
23. StroudLabour66.7%
24. LincolnLabour65.9%
25. Cannock ChaseLabour64.5%
26. Morecambe and LunesdaleLabour64.2%
27. Bury NorthLabour64.2%
28. South ThanetUKIP62%
29. City of ChesterLabour61.4%
30. Ealing Central and ActonLabour61.4%
31. Wirral WestLabour60.2%
32. KeighleyLabour57.9%
33. Brighton, KemptownLabour57.2%
34. NuneatonLabour56.6%
35. Harrow EastLabour55%
36. IpswichLabour54.9%
37. Stockton SouthLabour53.9%

Likely gains

SeatFromGain %
1. SolihullLiberal Democrats79.1%
2. Mid Dorset and North PooleLiberal Democrats77.1%
3. Somerton and FromeLiberal Democrats75.8%
4. ChippenhamLiberal Democrats74.6%
5. Berwick-upon-TweedLiberal Democrats73.5%
6. WellsLiberal Democrats71.4%
7. Taunton DeaneLiberal Democrats70.3%
8. St Austell and NewquayLiberal Democrats69.5%
9. Rochester and StroodUKIP69.2%
10. North DevonLiberal Democrats62.1%
11. Portsmouth SouthLiberal Democrats56.3%
12. TorbayLiberal Democrats49.3%
13. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkLiberal Democrats40.5%

Potential seats (by probability)

SeatLast Win2015 FavouriteWin %
1. Saffron WaldenConservativesConservatives100%
2. South StaffordshireConservativesConservatives100%
3. North East BedfordshireConservativesConservatives100%
4. New Forest EastConservativesConservatives100%
5. DevizesConservativesConservatives100%
6. OrpingtonConservativesConservatives100%
7. FarehamConservativesConservatives100%
8. North East HampshireConservativesConservatives100%
9. North East HertfordshireConservativesConservatives100%
10. Brentwood and OngarConservativesConservatives100%
11. ReigateConservativesConservatives100%
12. Bromley and ChislehurstConservativesConservatives100%
13. CongletonConservativesConservatives100%
14. North SomersetConservativesConservatives100%
15. TattonConservativesConservatives100%
16. PooleConservativesConservatives100%
17. WantageConservativesConservatives100%
18. Hitchin and HarpendenConservativesConservatives100%
19. Surrey HeathConservativesConservatives100%
20. South West DevonConservativesConservatives100%
21. HexhamConservativesConservatives100%
22. Cities of London and WestminsterConservativesConservatives100%
23. Hertford and StortfordConservativesConservatives100%
24. HenleyConservativesConservatives100%
25. South West HertfordshireConservativesConservatives100%
26. Chipping BarnetConservativesConservatives100%
27. Hemel HempsteadConservativesConservatives100%
28. Penrith and The BorderConservativesConservatives100%
29. Chingford and Woodford GreenConservativesConservatives100%
30. Chelsea and FulhamConservativesConservatives100%
31. South West WiltshireConservativesConservatives100%
32. Skipton and RiponConservativesConservatives100%
33. BracknellConservativesConservatives100%
34. MacclesfieldConservativesConservatives100%
35. Worthing WestConservativesConservatives100%
36. BeckenhamConservativesConservatives100%
37. BeaconsfieldConservativesConservatives100%
38. Mid WorcestershireConservativesConservatives100%
39. WitneyConservativesConservatives100%
40. WokinghamConservativesConservatives100%
41. Runnymede and WeybridgeConservativesConservatives100%
42. BanburyConservativesConservatives100%
43. WindsorConservativesConservatives100%
44. EddisburyConservativesConservatives100%
45. New Forest WestConservativesConservatives100%
46. Arundel and South DownsConservativesConservatives100%
47. WycombeConservativesConservatives100%
48. Wyre and Preston NorthConservativesConservatives100%
49. Altrincham and Sale WestConservativesConservatives100%
50. Mole ValleyConservativesConservatives100%
51. East HampshireConservativesConservatives100%
52. Chesham and AmershamConservativesConservatives100%
53. MaidenheadConservativesConservatives100%
54. Welwyn HatfieldConservativesConservatives100%
55. AldershotConservativesConservatives100%
56. Esher and WaltonConservativesConservatives100%
57. Epsom and EwellConservativesConservatives100%
58. Meon ValleyConservativesConservatives100%
59. WimbledonConservativesConservatives100%
60. Epping ForestConservativesConservatives100%
61. HuntingdonConservativesConservatives96.7%
62. South West BedfordshireConservativesConservatives96.7%
63. Central Suffolk and North IpswichConservativesConservatives96.7%
64. Derbyshire DalesConservativesConservatives96.7%
65. Stratford-on-AvonConservativesConservatives96.7%
66. South NorfolkConservativesConservatives96.7%
67. Tiverton and HonitonConservativesConservatives96.6%
68. South NorthamptonshireConservativesConservatives96.6%
69. South SuffolkConservativesConservatives96.3%
70. South Holland and The DeepingsConservativesConservatives96.3%
71. SevenoaksConservativesConservatives96.3%
72. RushcliffeConservativesConservatives96.3%
73. Selby and AinstyConservativesConservatives96.3%
74. SalisburyConservativesConservatives96.3%
75. East SurreyConservativesConservatives96.3%
76. Faversham and Mid KentConservativesConservatives96.3%
77. DaventryConservativesConservatives96.3%
78. Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerConservativesConservatives96.3%
79. RomfordConservativesConservatives96.3%
80. PutneyConservativesConservatives96.3%
81. South LeicestershireConservativesConservatives96.3%
82. Sleaford and North HykehamConservativesConservatives96.3%
83. ChichesterConservativesConservatives96.3%
84. Mid BedfordshireConservativesConservatives96.3%
85. North HerefordshireConservativesConservatives96.3%
86. Kenilworth and SouthamConservativesConservatives96.3%
87. Tunbridge WellsConservativesConservatives96.3%
88. BroxbourneConservativesConservatives96.3%
89. WealdenConservativesConservatives96.3%
90. MeridenConservativesConservatives96.3%
91. Rutland and MeltonConservativesConservatives96.3%
92. Tonbridge and MallingConservativesConservatives96.3%
93. Suffolk CoastalConservativesConservatives96.3%
94. Beverley and HoldernessConservativesConservatives96.3%
95. HertsmereConservativesConservatives96.3%
96. Central DevonConservativesConservatives96.3%
97. CharnwoodConservativesConservatives96.3%
98. Old Bexley and SidcupConservativesConservatives96.3%
99. KensingtonConservativesConservatives96.3%
100. Basildon and BillericayConservativesConservatives96.2%
101. FyldeConservativesConservatives96.2%
102. Thirsk and MaltonConservativesConservatives96.2%
103. Grantham and StamfordConservativesConservatives95.8%
104. NewarkConservativesConservatives95.8%
105. East YorkshireConservativesConservatives95.8%
106. WithamConservativesConservatives95.8%
107. Bury St EdmundsConservativesConservatives95.8%
108. North WiltshireConservativesConservatives95.8%
109. BromsgroveConservativesConservatives95.4%
110. Haltemprice and HowdenConservativesConservatives95.4%
111. GosportConservativesConservatives95.4%
112. Sutton ColdfieldConservativesConservatives95.4%
113. West SuffolkConservativesConservatives95.4%
114. North West NorfolkConservativesConservatives95.3%
115. Uxbridge and South RuislipConservativesConservatives95.3%
116. Mid NorfolkConservativesConservatives95.3%
117. Ribble ValleyConservativesConservatives95.3%
118. HarboroughConservativesConservatives95.3%
119. AylesburyConservativesConservatives95.3%
120. BasingstokeConservativesConservatives95.2%
121. MaldonConservativesConservatives94.9%
122. BraintreeConservativesConservatives94.8%
123. ChelmsfordConservativesConservatives94.8%
124. WokingConservativesConservatives94.8%
125. North ShropshireConservativesConservatives94.4%
126. North East CambridgeshireConservativesConservatives94.4%
127. LichfieldConservativesConservatives94.4%
128. StoneConservativesConservatives94.4%
129. MonmouthConservativesConservatives94.3%
130. Bexhill and BattleConservativesConservatives94.3%
131. Aldridge-BrownhillsConservativesConservatives94.3%
132. East Worthing and ShorehamConservativesConservatives94.3%
133. Southend WestConservativesConservatives94.3%
134. South West SurreyConservativesConservatives94.3%
135. HorshamConservativesConservatives93.6%
136. HavantConservativesConservatives93.6%
137. Croydon SouthConservativesConservatives93.5%
138. AshfordConservativesConservatives93.5%
139. Bexleyheath and CrayfordConservativesConservatives93.5%
140. Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonConservativesConservatives93.4%
141. CanterburyConservativesConservatives93.4%
142. Bridgwater and West SomersetConservativesConservatives93.1%
143. The CotswoldsConservativesConservatives93%
144. NewburyConservativesConservatives92.8%
145. Rayleigh and WickfordConservativesConservatives92.7%
146. Hornchurch and UpminsterConservativesConservatives92.7%
147. North West HampshireConservativesConservatives92.7%
148. South West NorfolkConservativesConservatives92.7%
149. GainsboroughConservativesConservatives92.7%
150. Bournemouth WestConservativesConservatives92.6%
151. SpelthorneConservativesConservatives92.6%
152. Mid SussexConservativesConservatives92.4%
153. North DorsetConservativesConservatives92.4%
154. Bournemouth EastConservativesConservatives92.3%
155. West WorcestershireConservativesConservatives92.2%
156. LudlowConservativesConservatives92.2%
157. Clwyd WestConservativesConservatives92.1%
158. GuildfordConservativesConservatives92%
159. TewkesburyConservativesConservatives91.8%
160. BroadlandConservativesConservatives91.4%
161. South CambridgeshireConservativesConservatives91.4%
162. Richmond ParkConservativesConservatives91.3%
163. Mid DerbyshireConservativesConservatives91.3%
164. WellingboroughConservativesConservatives91.3%
165. ShipleyConservativesConservatives91.3%
166. Milton Keynes NorthConservativesConservatives91.2%
167. Harrogate and KnaresboroughConservativesConservatives91.2%
168. Hereford and South HerefordshireConservativesConservatives91.1%
169. ChristchurchConservativesConservatives90.9%
170. York OuterConservativesConservatives90.8%
171. BosworthConservativesConservatives90.1%
172. Shrewsbury and AtchamConservativesConservatives89.9%
173. South East CambridgeshireConservativesConservatives89.7%
174. Forest of DeanConservativesConservatives89.7%
175. St AlbansConservativesConservatives89.4%
176. Rochford and Southend EastConservativesConservatives89.3%
177. Romsey and Southampton NorthConservativesConservatives89.3%
178. The WrekinConservativesConservatives89.2%
179. TotnesConservativesConservatives89.2%
180. WinchesterConservativesConservatives89.1%
181. BatterseaConservativesConservatives89%
182. North West CambridgeshireConservativesConservatives88.5%
183. DartfordConservativesConservatives88.3%
184. Torridge and West DevonConservativesConservatives88.2%
185. Richmond (Yorks)ConservativesConservatives88.2%
186. Gillingham and RainhamConservativesConservatives88.1%
187. North East SomersetConservativesConservatives87.7%
188. Reading EastConservativesConservatives87.7%
189. West DorsetConservativesConservatives86.6%
190. Enfield, SouthgateConservativesConservatives86.4%
191. KetteringConservativesConservatives86.1%
192. North SwindonConservativesConservatives86%
193. Harwich and North EssexConservativesConservatives85%
194. Camborne and RedruthConservativesConservatives84.9%
195. South East CornwallConservativesConservatives84.3%
196. South DorsetConservativesConservatives84.3%
197. Staffordshire MoorlandsConservativesConservatives84.2%
198. HarlowConservativesConservatives84%
199. RugbyConservativesConservatives84%
200. Newton AbbotConservativesConservatives83.9%
201. TamworthConservativesConservatives83.7%
202. Weston-Super-MareConservativesConservatives83.7%
203. BurtonConservativesConservatives82.7%
204. Oxford West and AbingdonConservativesConservatives82.6%
205. Louth and HorncastleConservativesConservatives82.5%
206. Preseli PembrokeshireConservativesConservatives82.5%
207. South DerbyshireConservativesConservatives82.3%
208. GraveshamConservativesConservatives82.3%
209. Folkestone and HytheConservativesConservatives81.7%
210. DoverConservativesConservatives81.4%
211. Scarborough and WhitbyConservativesConservatives81.4%
212. Northampton SouthConservativesConservatives80.8%
213. Sittingbourne and SheppeyConservativesConservatives80.6%
214. East DevonConservativesConservatives80.5%
215. StaffordConservativesConservatives80.3%
216. Isle of WightConservativesConservatives79.4%
217. Truro and FalmouthConservativesConservatives79.3%
218. SolihullLiberal DemocratsConservatives79.1%
219. Bristol North WestConservativesConservatives78.7%
220. Filton and Bradley StokeConservativesConservatives78.3%
221. Chatham and AylesfordConservativesConservatives78.3%
222. Reading WestConservativesConservatives78.3%
223. North ThanetConservativesConservatives77.8%
224. Maidstone and The WealdConservativesConservatives77.8%
225. North West LeicestershireConservativesConservatives77.1%
226. Mid Dorset and North PooleLiberal DemocratsConservatives77.1%
227. RedditchConservativesConservatives76.9%
228. Vale of GlamorganConservativesConservatives76.5%
229. Somerton and FromeLiberal DemocratsConservatives75.8%
230. Brigg and GooleConservativesConservatives75.8%
231. ChippenhamLiberal DemocratsConservatives74.6%
232. CrawleyConservativesConservatives74.2%
233. KingswoodConservativesConservatives74.1%
234. LoughboroughConservativesConservatives73.7%
235. Portsmouth NorthConservativesConservatives73.7%
236. Berwick-upon-TweedLiberal DemocratsConservatives73.5%
237. Warwick and LeamingtonConservativesConservatives73.3%
238. Ilford NorthConservativesConservatives71.9%
239. WellsLiberal DemocratsConservatives71.4%
240. MontgomeryshireConservativesConservatives71.4%
241. Taunton DeaneLiberal DemocratsConservatives70.3%
242. StourbridgeConservativesConservatives70%
243. St Austell and NewquayLiberal DemocratsConservatives69.5%
244. Rochester and StroodUKIPConservatives69.2%
245. Calder ValleyConservativesConservatives69.2%
246. Castle PointConservativesConservatives68.4%
247. AberconwyConservativesConservatives68.3%
248. South Basildon and East ThurrockConservativesConservatives67.4%
249. Boston and SkegnessConservativesConservatives66.7%
250. High PeakConservativesConservatives66.7%
251. South RibbleConservativesConservatives66.7%
252. Dudley SouthConservativesConservatives66.3%
253. Elmet and RothwellConservativesConservatives66.2%
254. Great YarmouthConservativesConservatives65.9%
255. Colne ValleyConservativesConservatives65.5%
256. Blackpool North and CleveleysConservativesConservatives64.5%
257. PendleConservativesConservatives63.6%
258. WorcesterConservativesConservatives63.5%
259. Carmarthen West and South PembrokeshireConservativesConservatives63.1%
260. CleethorpesConservativesConservatives63.1%
261. GloucesterConservativesConservatives63.1%
262. Wyre ForestConservativesConservatives62.9%
263. Milton Keynes SouthConservativesConservatives62.5%
264. PeterboroughConservativesConservatives62.5%
265. North DevonLiberal DemocratsConservatives62.1%
266. Rossendale and DarwenConservativesConservatives60.7%
267. Crewe and NantwichConservativesConservatives60%
268. WatfordConservativesConservatives59.1%
269. South SwindonConservativesConservatives59.1%
270. StevenageConservativesConservatives58.7%
271. Portsmouth SouthLiberal DemocratsConservatives56.3%
272. PudseyConservativesConservatives56%
273. Croydon CentralConservativesConservatives56%
274. Finchley and Golders GreenConservativesConservatives55%
275. Norwich NorthConservativesConservatives53.4%
276. Northampton NorthConservativesConservatives51.2%
277. Halesowen and Rowley RegisConservativesConservatives50.5%
278. TorbayLiberal DemocratsConservatives49.3%
279. North CornwallLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats47.6%
280. St IvesLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats46.9%
281. Stockton SouthConservativesLabour46.1%
282. IpswichConservativesLabour45.1%
283. Harrow EastConservativesLabour45%
284. CheadleLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats44.9%
285. NuneatonConservativesLabour43.4%
286. Brighton, KemptownConservativesLabour42.8%
287. KeighleyConservativesLabour42.1%
288. Brecon and RadnorshireLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats41%
289. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkLiberal DemocratsConservatives40.5%
290. Wirral WestConservativesLabour39.8%
291. City of ChesterConservativesLabour38.6%
292. Ealing Central and ActonConservativesLabour38.6%
293. South ThanetConservativesUKIP38%
294. Morecambe and LunesdaleConservativesLabour35.8%
295. Bury NorthConservativesLabour35.8%
296. Cannock ChaseConservativesLabour35.5%
297. CheltenhamLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats35.4%
298. Sutton and CheamLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats35.3%
299. Kingston and SurbitonLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats34.5%
300. LincolnConservativesLabour34.1%
301. StroudConservativesLabour33.3%
302. BroxtoweConservativesLabour32.5%
303. BedfordConservativesLabour31.8%
304. ErewashConservativesLabour31.8%
305. Hastings and RyeConservativesLabour31.3%
306. EastbourneLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats31.1%
307. Amber ValleyConservativesLabour30.9%
308. HoveConservativesLabour30.8%
309. Southampton, ItchenLabourLabour30.6%
310. DewsburyConservativesLabour30.1%
311. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleConservativesSNP30.1%
312. CarlisleConservativesLabour30.1%
313. BathLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats30.1%
314. Warrington SouthConservativesLabour30.1%
315. Hazel GroveLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats28.6%
316. Weaver ValeConservativesLabour27.6%
317. SouthportLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats25%
318. Lancaster and FleetwoodConservativesLabour24.5%
319. CorbyLabourLabour24.3%
320. Carshalton and WallingtonLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats24.3%
321. Enfield NorthConservativesLabour24.2%
322. Plymouth, Sutton and DevonportConservativesLabour24.2%
323. SherwoodConservativesLabour24.1%
324. WaveneyConservativesLabour24.1%
325. North WarwickshireConservativesLabour22.9%
326. EastleighLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats22.6%
327. Wolverhampton South WestConservativesLabour22.4%
328. Cardiff NorthConservativesLabour22.4%
329. HalifaxLabourLabour22.3%
330. Thornbury and YateLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats22.2%
331. LewesLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats21.7%
332. YeovilLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats21.5%
333. Brentford and IsleworthConservativesLabour20%
334. HendonConservativesLabour19.6%
335. TelfordLabourLabour19.5%
336. Derby NorthLabourLabour19.3%
337. Hampstead and KilburnLabourLabour18.9%
338. ColchesterLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats18.2%
339. Dumfries and GallowayLabourSNP17.7%
340. ThurrockConservativesUKIP17.4%
341. TwickenhamLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats17.4%
342. Walsall NorthLabourLabour16.4%
343. Bolton WestLabourLabour16%
344. Westminster NorthLabourLabour15.8%
345. Birmingham, EdgbastonLabourLabour14.9%
346. GedlingLabourLabour13.8%
347. Middlesbrough South and East ClevelandLabourLabour13.5%
348. Wirral SouthLabourLabour12.9%
349. West Aberdeenshire and KincardineLiberal DemocratsSNP12.4%
350. WakefieldLabourLabour12.1%
351. ClactonUKIPUKIP12.1%
352. Southampton, TestLabourLabour11.3%
353. Westmorland and LonsdaleLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats10.7%
354. Birmingham, NorthfieldLabourLabour10.7%
355. North NorfolkLiberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats10.6%
356. Penistone and StocksbridgeLabourLabour10.5%
357. Morley and OutwoodLabourLabour10.4%
358. TootingLabourLabour9.9%
359. Bury SouthLabourLabour9.6%
360. Harrow WestLabourLabour9.5%
361. Newcastle-under-LymeLabourLabour9.5%
362. Blackpool SouthLabourLabour9%
363. ChorleyLabourLabour8.9%
364. HammersmithLabourLabour8.8%
365. Luton SouthLabourLabour8.7%
366. Walsall SouthLabourLabour8.7%
367. GowerLabourLabour8.7%
368. Plymouth, Moor ViewLabourLabour8.7%
369. Nottingham SouthLabourLabour8.7%
370. North East DerbyshireLabourLabour8.6%
371. ElthamLabourLabour8.6%
372. Barrow and FurnessLabourLabour8.6%
373. Vale of ClwydLabourLabour7.9%
374. ExeterLabourLabour7.6%
375. Clwyd SouthLabourLabour7.4%
376. Alyn and DeesideLabourLabour7.4%
377. BridgendLabourLabour7.4%
378. Stalybridge and HydeLabourLabour7.3%
379. HyndburnLabourLabour7.1%
380. Great GrimsbyLabourLabour6.8%
381. DelynLabourLabour6.6%
382. Birmingham, Selly OakLabourLabour6.6%
383. Wolverhampton North EastLabourLabour6.4%
384. Sefton CentralLabourLabour5.7%
385. DarlingtonLabourLabour5.7%
386. Feltham and HestonLabourLabour5.7%
387. Newport WestLabourLabour5.6%
388. Luton NorthLabourLabour5.6%
389. Perth and North PerthshireSNPSNP5.5%
390. SloughLabourLabour5.2%
391. WrexhamLabourLabour4.7%
392. Worsley and Eccles SouthLabourLabour4.7%
393. Bristol EastLabourLabour4.7%
394. CopelandLabourLabour4.7%
395. Ilford SouthLabourLabour4.7%
396. Ellesmere Port and NestonLabourLabour4.7%
397. Birmingham, ErdingtonLabourLabour4.7%
398. Edinburgh WestLiberal DemocratsSNP4.7%
399. Batley and SpenLabourLabour4.6%
400. Brent NorthLabourLabour4.6%
401. Cardiff WestLabourLabour4.6%
402. ScunthorpeLabourLabour4.5%
403. Don ValleyLabourLabour4.5%
404. Leeds North EastLabourLabour4.2%
405. Dudley NorthLabourLabour4%
406. BlackburnLabourLabour3.8%
407. Coventry SouthLabourLabour3.7%
408. TynemouthLabourLabour3.7%
409. Bolton North EastLabourLabour3.7%
410. West LancashireLabourLabour3.7%
411. Banff and BuchanSNPSNP3.7%
412. Sunderland CentralLabourLabour3.7%
413. BassetlawLabourLabour3.7%
414. Cardiff South and PenarthLabourLabour3.7%
415. Warrington NorthLabourLabour3.7%
416. Erith and ThamesmeadLabourLabour3.3%
417. Oldham East and SaddleworthLabourLabour3.3%